FINWIRES · TerminalLIVE
FINWIRES

US Oil Update: Futures Headed for Weekly Decline

-- Oil prices eased on Friday and were headed for a weekly decline after the US-Iran ceasefire deal which effectively slashed the geopolitical risk premium, even as the agreement gets off to a very shaky start.

The front-month West Texas Intermediate crude contract was down 0.5% at $97.41 per barrel. Brent futures eased 0.5% to $65.98/bbl.

Both contracts were headed for a weekly fall of about 12%.

"Crude prices try to stabilise below [$]100 following the sharpest weekly drop since last June yet remain underpinned by mixed signals surrounding the proposed peace plan, a roughly 600,000 b/d cut in Saudi production capacity, and the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz since late February," Saxo Bank analysts said.

An April 9-dated news article by the Saudi Press Agency citing the Energy Ministry referred to an attack "recently" on a pumping station on the East-West pipeline, which it said caused a loss of about 700,000 barrels in throughput.

It did not make mention of the origin of the attack but a source told Reuters on Wednesday that it came from Iran, damaging Saudi Arabia's main alternative route to export markets since the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

"Meanwhile, spot Brent transactions continue to clear at notable premiums to futures, underscoring mounting supply stress as refiners scramble to replace disrupted Middle East flows," Saxo Bank added.

June Brent futures have retreated below $100 per barrel following the ceasefire announcement. Yet cargoes already at sea priced by Dated Brent, the global benchmark for immediate delivery, remain stubbornly above $120.

US President Donald Trump gave a warning to on Thursday amid reports that Tehran has started charging transit fees on tankers seeking to exit the Strait of Hormuz. Shipping through the key waterway remains restricted despite the ceasefire deal.

"There are reports that Iran is charging fees to tankers going through the Hormuz Strait," Trump said in a social media post on Truth Social, "They better not be and, if they are, they better stop now!"

According to TRM Labs' Thursday note, Iran's new toll framework requires payments of up to $2 million per vessel payable in cryptocurrency or Chinese yuan generating an estimated $20 million in daily revenue for Tehran.

Further tightening the squeeze, Russia's Tass news agency reported, citing a senior Iranian source, that Iran will continue to limit the movement of ships.

The source reportedly said that under the current ceasefire, "fewer than 15 ships per day" will be permitted to sail via the Strait of Hormuz, according to the report.

All eyes are now on high-stakes talks between a US delegation and Iranian officials scheduled for this weekend.

Related Articles

Asia

Bank of Queensland Posts Lower Fiscal H1 Cash Earnings, Higher Revenue

Bank of Queensland (ASX:BOQ) reported Wednesday fiscal first-half cash earnings of AU$0.253 per share, down from AU$0.264 a year earlier.Analysts polled by FactSet expected earnings of AU$0.26.Revenue from ordinary activities for the six months ended Feb. 28 was AU$835 million, compared with AU$802 million a year earlier.Analysts surveyed by FactSet expected AU$839 million.The company has maintained its common equity tier 1 management target range at 10.25% to 10.75%, along with an unchanged dividend payout ratio target of 60% to 75% of cash earnings, while also keeping its cost guidance steady and continuing to expect cost growth from 2025 to 2026 to remain below the rate of inflation.The board declared an interim dividend of AU$0.20 per share, up from AU$0.18 a year earlier, payable May 27 to shareholders on record as of May 5.

$ASX:BOQ
Asia

Carnaby Resources Continues to Be Undervalued Relative to Peers, Euroz Hartleys Says

Carnaby Resources (ASX:CNB) continues to be undervalued relative to its peers and given its production potential, Euroz Hartleys said in a Tuesday note, adding that the market may have missed a near-term production opportunity.The company has commenced a roughly 3,000 meters reverse circulation drilling program at its Greater Duchess copper gold project in Queensland, targeting extensions of high-priority mineralization at the Trekelano deposit.In addition, more assay results from a recently completed diamond drilling program are also pending, providing near-term news flow alongside the current drilling program, the equity research firm said.Leveraging its binding tolling and offtake deals with Glencore provides a low capital pathway to first production for Carnaby, and the first three years of production on Euroz Hartleys' modeling should come from lower-risk open pit reserves in the Trekelano, Mt Hope and Lady Fanny operations, it said.The equity research firm maintain a speculative buy recommendation on the stock with a price target of AU$0.96.

$ASX:CNB
Asia

South32 Posts 1% Rise in Year-to-March Alumina Production

South32 (ASX:S32) reported a 1% increase in alumina production year-to-date to March, helped by record production in its Brazil Alumina segment, according to a Wednesday filing with the Australian bourse.Aluminium production was mostly flat during the period, as its Hillside Aluminium smelter continued to evaluate its maximum technical capacity.Sierra Gorda, a Chile-based copper mine in which South32 holds a 45% stake, delivered a record quarterly distribution of $135 million to the company.South32 said its annual production guidance remained on track for all operations, apart from Australia Manganese, where the fiscal 2026 production outlook was cut by 6% to 3,000 kilo wet metric tonnes due to elevated site water levels and heavy rainfall following Tropical Cyclone Narelle.

$ASX:S32