-- European natural gas futures were up on Tuesday, reversing losses from earlier in the day, after US forces boarded another oil tanker in the Indian Ocean, with links to the Iranian regime.
The front-month Dutch TTF benchmark was up 4.10% to 41.94 euros per megawatt hour ($49.35), while UK NBP futures rose 3.83% to 105.19 British pence per therm ($1.40).
On Tuesday, in a post on X, the US Department of Defense said that it had conducted a "right-of-visit, maritime interdiction and boarding" of a sanctioned vessel, M/T Tifani, which it said was part of the administration's maritime enforcement efforts to disrupt the "illicit networks" that are supporting the Iranian regime.
This comes ahead of the ceasefire deadline, which Trump said was "highly unlikely" to be extended during a phone interview with Bloomberg on Monday.
It also comes right on the heels of the second round of negotiations between the US and Iran in Islamabad, Pakistan, on Tuesday. US Vice President JD Vance is leading the American delegation, while Iran's Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, has authorized the country's negotiators to participate, according to multiple media outlets.
The Strait of Hormuz remained effectively closed for the eighth week running, but saw an uptick in traffic, with 16 vessels passing through over the past 24 hours, according to the Hormuz Strait Monitor.
This is still significantly below the typical daily average of 138 ships transiting the Strait, as the UK's Joint Maritime Information Center continues to maintain the regional threat level at "Critical."
According to Cyril Widdershoven, a geopolitical strategist with a focus on commodities, diplomacy in the Strait "is becoming theatre," as he noted that power in Iran was no longer controlled by the State, but by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, which is now acting like a parallel authority.
"Any deal that ignores this fragmentation risks immediate irrelevance," he said, adding that shipping companies, energy markets, and insurers are already seeing this.
This comes at a critical juncture for European markets, with the region's gas storage at its lowest level in years, at 30.40%, compared to 36.74% during the corresponding period a year ago, according to Gas Infrastructure Europe.
Meanwhile, the Golden Pass LNG export facility in Texas has reported the arrival of its first tanker to load its inaugural cargo of super-chilled natural gas. This offers relief for markets that have been reeling from supply constraints.