-- Cava Group's (CAVA) first-quarter same-store sales are expected to top Wall Street's estimates amid continued momentum, which could prompt the company to raise its full-year outlook, RBC Capital Markets said in a note e-mailed Friday.
The brokerage projects the fast-casual restaurant chain's same-store sales for the quarter to rise 6%, while the Street is looking for 5.9% growth, according to the RBC note to clients. Cava is scheduled to report results May 19.
"Thus far this earnings season, restaurant winners (and) losers have largely been defined by sensitivity to (the Middle East) conflict-related macro headwinds," RBC analyst Logan Reich said. "For Cava, we don't think their traffic is materially impacted, where their relatively high-income consumer exposure should insulate them from higher gas prices."
Energy prices have jumped as the US-Israel war with Iran has curtailed shipments through the crucial Strait of Hormuz. The war, which started at the end of February, paused following a recent ceasefire between Washington and Tehran, though a framework for a permanent truce is yet to be reached.
US retail gasoline prices averaged $4.392 per gallon Friday, compared with $3.187 a year ago, according to data from AAA, a travel organization that tracks fuel prices in the country.
Cava started the year with comparable sales momentum, which could continue through 2026 amid "menu innovation, digital improvements, and easing compares," Reich said. These factors could help drive upward revisions to the company's own full-year outlook for same-store sales to grow between 3% and 5%, which the brokerage said was "conservative."
RBC raised its price target on Cava's stock to $100 from $90 with an outperform rating.
The company's shares were down 2.5% in Friday late-afternoon trade. So far in 2026, the stock has surged 56%.
Despite the shares' significant year-to-date outperformance, RBC said it's leaning "constructive" into Cava's upcoming results.
"We theorize there's potential consumer reversion towards the fast-casual category this year, as consumers could increasingly prioritize healthier (and) wellness, which Cava should benefit from, following a material slowdown across the category in (2025) as quick-service chains took share driven by incremental value offerings," Reich said.
Price: $91.09, Change: $-2.33, Percent Change: -2.49%