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FINWIRES

EMEA Natural Gas Update: Futures Rise Over 2% as Middle East Ceasefire Turns Fragile

-- European natural gas futures were up on Thursday, rebounding from their five-week low the day before, after continuing Israeli strikes in Lebanon added to the uncertainties surrounding the ceasefire.

The front-month Dutch TTF contract was up 2.43% at 46.40 euros ($54.11) per megawatt-hour, while UK NBP futures were up 2.53% to 117.14 pence ($1.56) per therm.

The two-week ceasefire agreed upon by the US, Israel, and Iran is facing a point of contention involving Lebanon, which continued to be attacked, which Tehran has called a breach of the truce.

On Wednesday, Iran's Foreign Minister Seyed Abbas Araghchi said in a post on X that the ceasefire terms were "clear and explicit," and included a halt to hostilities between Israel and Lebanon.

Meanwhile, in a Truth Social post on Wednesday, US President Donald Trump said that US forces will "remain in place" in Iran until a complete agreement is reached.

Trump also warned that if an agreement is not reached within these two weeks, then the US will restart its offensive against Tehran, "bigger, and better, and stronger than anyone has ever seen before."

This highlights the fragility of the truce, with lingering uncertainties continuing to keep global energy and equity markets on edge, even as it marked a major de-escalation.

Despite Trump's statements, the Strait of Hormuz remained effectively shut for the sixth-week running, with just 11 vessels transiting through it over the past 24 hours, according to the Hormuz Strait Monitor.

This is in stark contrast to the typical daily average of 138 vessels moving through the Strait during normal times, according to the UK's Joint Maritime Information Center.

According to Daniel Hynes, a senior commodity strategist at ANZ, even with the Straits reopening, the markets will have to sail through "higher prices, inventory drawdowns and demand rationing," as it would take time for major production and export facilities to come online.

This comes at a time when European markets are stepping into refilling season, with significantly depleted inventories, at just 28.77%, compared to 35% last year, according to Gas Infrastructure Europe.

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Mining & Metals

RBC Provides its Canadian Technology Q1/CY26 Preview

RBC Capital Markets provided a first-quarter earnings preview for stocks in its Canadian Technology coverage universe on Friday.The S&P/TSX Info-Tech sub-sector had its "worst start to the year" since 2022, due to the continued downward re-rating of software stocks on concerns regarding AI disruption, noted RBC.While RBC expects Q1 results to be "largely in line" with consensus and believes the "magnitude of the pullback in software valuations is an overreaction," it believes sentiment is unlikely to materially change in the short term.Even though RBC anticipates "slightly improved organic growth" for the average stock in its coverage this quarter, the market appears "risk-averse and may largely ignore positive surprises and disproportionately penalize negative surprises," in light of the market sensitivity regarding AI disruption and uncertainty regarding the macro environment, said RBC.Among its covered stocks, RBC believes the "best-positioned stocks" for calendar Q1 results are Celestica (CLS.TO), Shopify (SHOP.TO), Constellation Software (CSU.TO), and Kinaxis (KXS.TO).RBC believes Celestica will report Q1 earnings above consensus and increase FY26 guidance, given hyperscaler capex continues to increase, along with strong network switch and AI server demand, against Celestica's historically conservative outlook, added RBC."Given the strong 36% YTD rally in Celestica's shares, Q1 results may not be a catalyst for the stock," said RBC. "Even so, we believe Celestica's strong growth momentum, ongoing margin expansion, and mix shift to more structurally attractive segments of the market are likely to help sustain Celestica's valuation to remain above peers and toward the high end of its historical range."For Shopify, RBC expects "solid" Q1 results and Q2 guidance slightly above consensus estimates.U.S. e-commerce spending strengthened through Q1, noted RBC which it believes implies revenue growth accelerates sequentially, with Q1 revenue and adj. EPS likely slightly above consensus."While the valuation of Shopify's shares has re-rated down with the YTD pullback in software stocks, Shopify's fundamentals remain solid, in our view, and we expect strong growth to drive shareholder returns over the long term," said RBC.RBC expects Constellation's shares to modestly rally following Q1 results."With the stock trading near multi-year valuation lows, we see investor sentiment improving, given Q1 slightly ahead of consensus, TTM free cashflow up 25%, and annualized Q1 capital deployed on acquisitions likely tracking to a new record," said RBC. "We see Constellation's valuation as compelling, compared to our forecast for a 17% adj. EBITDA CAGR over the next 3 years."RBC believes Kinaxis's shares may "slightly rally" following Q1 results. It expects Kinaxis to report "solid" Q1 results, slightly above consensus, with continued growth re-acceleration and likely healthy bookings."With Kinaxis seeing reaccelerating growth, but trading at discounted valuation levels, we see compelling risk-reward on the shares," added RBC. "Moreover, ramping share buybacks may provide a floor for the stock."Price: $565.60, Change: $+28.12, Percent Change: +5.23%

$AIF.TO$CGY.TO$CLS.TO$CSU.TO$CVO.TO$GIB-A.TO$ISC.TO$KXS.TO$LMN.V$OTEX.TO$SHOP.TO$TOI.V$VHI.TO
Sectors

Sector Update: Health Care Stocks Decline in Afternoon Trading

Health care stocks were lower Friday afternoon, with the NYSE Health Care Index and the State Street Health Care Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLV) each shedding 1.4%.The iShares Biotechnology ETF (IBB) decreased 0.7%.In sector news, the US Food and Drug Administration said it was launching regulatory actions to back the development of psychedelic therapies to treat mental illness. The move builds on President Donald Trump's recent executive order directing the Department of Health and Human Services to accelerate access to treatments for people with serious mental illness, the FDA said.In corporate news, HCA Healthcare's (HCA) Q1 results exceeded market expectations, but the hospital operator said it did not see its usual seasonal lift in admissions amid declines in respiratory activity. Its shares dropped 9%.Organon (OGN) shares surged 28% amid a report that India's Sun Pharmaceutical Industries was planning a $13 billion bid for the company.Compass Pathways (CMPS) shares rose 5% after it said Friday the US Food and Drug Administration has granted its rolling review request for its new drug application and selected COMP360 for the Commissioner's National Priority Voucher program for treatment-resistant depression.

$CMPS$HCA$OGN
Sectors

Sector Update: Consumer Stocks Mixed Friday Afternoon

Consumer stocks were mixed Friday afternoon, with the State Street Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLP) down 0.3% and the State Street Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLY) rising 0.8%.In sector news, US consumer sentiment improved from an initial April estimate, but remained at a record low as near-term inflation expectations logged the biggest monthly increase in a year, final University of Michigan survey results showed Friday. The main sentiment index fell 6.6% to 49.8 from last month. The consensus in a Bloomberg poll expected the April reading to be revised to 48.5 from the preliminary estimate of 47.6.In corporate news, Procter & Gamble (PG) reported stronger-than-expected fiscal Q3 results on Friday, while the consumer goods giant reiterated its full-year outlook. Shares rose 3.2%.Charter Communications (CHTR) reported Q1 earnings below market estimates as revenue declined annually, driven by weakness in the residential video and Internet segments. Shares slumped 22%.Stellantis (STLA) plans to direct the bulk of its future investment toward Jeep, Ram, Peugeot, and Fiat under Chief Executive Antonio Filosa's turnaround strategy, Reuters reported. The carmaker is set to unveil the long-term plan in May, focusing on strengthening its most profitable global brands while streamlining its sprawling 14-brand portfolio, the industry's largest, the report said. Stellantis shares were down 3%.

$CHTR$PG$STLA