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Equities Fall Intraday Ahead of Fed Rate Decision; Oil Prices Jump

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-- US benchmark equity indexes were lower intraday ahead of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decision.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 0.6% at 48,825.5 after midday, while the Nasdaq Composite lost 0.4% to 24,560.8. The S&P 500 fell 0.3% to 7,117. Barring energy, all sectors were in the red, led by industrials.

Markets widely expect the US central bank's policy committee to keep its benchmark lending rate unchanged for a third consecutive meeting. Fed Chair Jerome Powell will hold a press conference at 2:30 pm ET.

Ahead of the rate decision, the US Senate Banking Committee voted Wednesday to advance Kevin Warsh's nomination as Fed chair to the Republican-controlled Senate.

Warsh is President Donald Trump's pick to replace Powell, whose term as Fed chief expires on May 15. Trump has repeatedly criticized Powell for the central bank's cautious view on lowering interest rates.

Today's monetary policy meeting could be Powell's last as Fed chief should the full Senate confirm Warsh in the week of May 11. Powell's term on the Fed's Board of Governors runs through January 2028, though its unclear if he would exit the Fed or decide to stay on.

Oil prices surged Wednesday after Trump reportedly rejected an Iranian proposal to lift the naval blockade. Brent crude was up 7.1% at $119.20 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate crude jumped 6.9% to $106.79.

Trump told Axios on Wednesday he will maintain the US naval blockade of Iranian ports until Tehran agrees to a nuclear deal. Iran wanted the Strait of Hormuz opened before the two sides could sit down to discuss uranium enrichment at a later stage.

In a social media post on Wednesday, Trump said Iran "better get smart soon."

"Crude oil has resumed its war-driven rally, with Brent rising almost non-stop since a brief mid-month tumble to ($86 per barrel), when hopes for a peace deal and a short-lived reopening of the Strait of Hormuz triggered a sharp but temporary correction," Saxo Bank Head of Commodity Strategy Ole Hansen said in a report Wednesday.

US Treasury yields were higher intraday, with the 10-year rate up 5.3 basis points at 4.41% and the two-year rate rising 6.4 basis points to 3.91%.

Magnificent 7 companies Alphabet (GOOG, GOOGL), Microsoft (MSFT), Amazon (AMZN), and Meta Platforms (META) are scheduled to release quarterly results after the markets close.

In company news, Visa (V) shares were up 9.1% intraday, the biggest gain on the Dow, after the payments giant lifted its full-year growth outlook and reported better-than-expected fiscal second-quarter results.

Wingstop (WING) reduced its 2026 domestic same-store sales outlook as the restaurant chain reported weaker-than expected first quarter revenue. The stock was down 4.1% intraday.

Gold fell 1% at $4,563.80 per troy ounce, while silver dropped 1.5% to $72.13 per ounce.

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Commodities

Market Chatter: UAE Reportedly Reviews Multilateral Ties After OPEC Exit, But No Further Withdrawals Planned

The United Arab Emirates is reviewing its participation in multilateral organizations but is not considering any withdrawals at present, Reuters reported Wednesday, citing a UAE official.The report came a day after Abu Dhabi announced it would leave the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and OPEC+ effective May 1. The official said the broader review focuses on the "utility" of UAE membership in international and regional bodies.The comments have fueled speculation that the UAE could reassess its role in other organizations, including the Arab League and the Gulf Cooperation Council.The UAE Ministry of Foreign Affairs did not immediately respond to a request for comment from.The OPEC exit, which involves one of the group's largest producers, has sharpened tensions with Saudi Arabia, OPEC's de facto leader. Relations between Abu Dhabi and Riyadh, long-standing allies, have grown increasingly strained in recent years over oil policy disputes, regional security concerns, and competition for investment and skilled labor, Reuters reported.The reassessment comes amid wider debate in Abu Dhabi over regional alignments following the Iran war, with Emirati officials criticizing the GCC's collective response.Senior UAE official Anwar Gargash said on Monday the GCC's political and military response to the conflict was "the weakest in history," adding that expectations for the Arab League were already low."I expected such a weak position from the Arab League... but I have not expected it from the GCC, and I am surprised by it," Gargash reportedly said.He also said the Gulf's strategy to contain Iran had "failed miserably" and warned that Tehran could remain a long-term threat, according to The National.Gargash said the UAE would "scrutinize" its regional and international relationships to assess the reliability of partners while strengthening its economic resilience. "Strategic autonomy remains the UAE's enduring choice," he said.OPEC+ is expected to approve a modest output increase on Sunday despite the UAE's departure, three sources reportedly told Reuters. The group is likely to raise production targets by about 188,000 barrels per day, roughly in line with last month's 206,000 bpd hike after adjusting for the UAE's exit.(Market Chatter news is derived from conversations with market professionals globally. This information is believed to be from reliable sources but may include rumor and speculation. Accuracy is not guaranteed.)

Oil & Energy

UAE Exit From OPEC Signals Oversupply Risk, Weaker Oil Prices From 2027, Wood Mackenzie Says

The UAE will exit OPEC on May 1, a move that raises risks of oversupply and weaker oil prices from 2027, Wood Mackenzie strategists said in a Wednesday note.The UAE announced its departure on April 28 after reviewing production strategy and capacity plans, aiming to accelerate domestic energy investments, the report noted.The country joined OPEC in 1967 and grew into its second-largest producer by liquids capacity, making the exit a major shift for the group, the report said."As the nation with the second-largest liquids capacity in OPEC, the UAE's exit is momentous," said Simon Flowers, chairman and chief analyst at Wood Mackenzie.He said tensions between the UAE and Saudi Arabia have built over recent years and intensified amid the Iran conflict, contributing to the decision."UAE's departure from OPEC will have minimal impact on market fundamentals in 2026," Flowers said, noting that Gulf producers need months to restore output even if the Strait of Hormuz reopens.He added that losing the UAE will make it harder for OPEC to balance markets and increase the risk of oversupply weakening prices beyond 2026.The UAE committed $145 billion to upstream investment through 2030 to lift output from under 4 million barrels per day in 2020 to 5 million b/d by 2027, Wood Mackenzie macro oils and upstream experts said.Capacity reached about 4.85 million b/d by 2024, widening the gap between production potential and OPEC+ quota limits, the experts said."OPEC+ quotas constrained output well below capacity," Alan Gelder, senior vice president at Wood Mackenzie, said.He said the group raised the UAE baseline from 3.17 million b/d to 3.5 million b/d in May 2022, but the adjustment reflected only partial capacity growth.The UAE accounted for about 14% of OPEC capacity, and its exit reduces the group's influence as it controls a smaller share of the global oil market, Wood Mackenzie said.The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has shut in nearly 2 million b/d of UAE offshore output, limiting supply growth in 2026, and restoring pre-conflict production may take up to six months.The UAE's exit will likely reshape supply dynamics from 2027, as rising market share competition with OPEC could pressure prices if both sides increase output, Wood Mackenzie said.Flowers said the UAE holds lower fiscal breakevens than peers, leaving it better positioned to withstand a prolonged period of lower oil prices.

Australia

Boston Scientific Shares Fall After Daiwa Securities Downgrade

Boston Scientific (BSX) shares fell 3.4% in Wednesday afternoon trading after Daiwa Securities downgraded the stock to neutral from outperform, and lowered its price target to $60 per share from $83 earlier.Trading volume stood at about 12.9 million shares, compared with a daily average of over 17.6 million.Price: $56.49, Change: $-1.96, Percent Change: -3.35%

$BSX