FINWIRES · TerminalLIVE
FINWIRES

IMF Raises India's 2026 Growth Forecast to 6.5%

-- The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has raised India's growth forecast for the fiscal year 2026 to 6.5% from its previous forecast of 6.4% made in January, according to its latest World Economic Outlook for April 2026, released on Tuesday.

The Indian economy is expected to grow faster than previously anticipated despite the war in the Middle East and growing geopolitical tensions.

"For 2026, growth is revised upward moderately by 0.3 percentage point (0.1 percentage point relative to January) to 6.5%, led by positive contributions from the carryover of the strong 2025 outturn and the decline in additional US tariffs on Indian goods from 50% to 10%, which outweigh the adverse impact of the Middle East conflict," the IMF said.

Growth is expected to be maintained at 6.5% in the fiscal year 2027.

In India, growth for fiscal year 2025 is revised upward by 1.0 percentage point from its earlier October forecast to 7.6%. This reflects "better-than-expected outturn in the second and third quarters of the fiscal year and sustained strong momentum in the fourth quarter," the IMF said.

Inflation in India is expected to return to near target levels after subdued food prices drove a marked decline in 2025.

The IMF's India growth projection for the current financial year is lower than the Reserve Bank of India's estimate of 6.9% and the World Bank's 6.6%.

At the global level, the IMF warns that the Middle East conflict would be a drag on growth and lead to inflationary pressure.

"Under the assumption of a limited conflict, global growth is projected at 3.1% in 2026 and 3.2% in 2027," the IMF said.

Related Articles

Research

Research Alert: CFRA Keeps Buy Opinion On Shares Of The Hartford Insurance Group, Inc.

CFRA, an independent research provider, has providedwith the following research alert. Analysts at CFRA have summarized their opinion as follows:We trim our 12-month target price by $8 to $155, valuing HIG shares at 11.3x our 2026 operating EPS estimate of $13.75 (cut by $0.45) and at 10.6x our 2027 EPS estimate of $14.65 (cut by $0.30), vs. the shares' one-year average forward multiple of 10.3x and peer average of 13x. Q1 EPS of $3.09 vs. $2.20 a year ago missed our $3.60 estimate and $3.39 consensus view. Operating revenue growth of 6.2% was in line with our 6%-10% forecast, amid 5.3% earned premium growth, 13% higher net investment income, and 7.9% fee revenue growth. Q1 written premium growth of 4% and full-year 2025 growth of 7% bode well for 2026 revenue trends as premiums are earned. Underwriting results improved significantly, with Personal Lines combined ratio improving to 87.7% from 106.1% and underlying combined ratio to 85.0% from 89.7%. Business Insurance combined ratio was stable at 94.8%. Weighing the Q1 EPS miss with HIG's decent top-line growth and discounted valuation to peers, we view the shares as undervalued.

$HIG
Research

Research Alert: CFRA Keeps Strong Buy Opinion On Shares Of Baker Hughes

CFRA, an independent research provider, has providedwith the following research alert. Analysts at CFRA have summarized their opinion as follows:We raise our 12-month target price by $14 to $82, reflecting a combination of our sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) and DCF models. For our SOTP model, we presume the oilfield services business (about 50% of BKR's franchise) to be valued at about 10x projected 2027 EBITDA (in line with major peers) and its industrial energy technology business (the other 50%) valued at 14x projected 2027 EBITDA (in line with the peer median). This blended approach, yielding a 12x multiple, implies a value of $73 per share. Meanwhile, our DCF model, using medium-term free cash flow growth of 5% per year, terminal growth of 2.5%, discounted at a WACC of 6.3%, yields intrinsic value of $91 per share. We cut our 2026 EPS estimate by $0.47 to $2.48, but we raise 2027's by $0.07 to $3.24. We acknowledge that the oilfield services business is likely to struggle in 2026 owing to the U.S.-Iran conflict, but the IET business appears quite robust and likely to be a source of both accelerating revenue growth and margins.

$BKR
Research

Research Alert: CFRA Maintains Hold Opinion In Shares Of Wab

CFRA, an independent research provider, has providedwith the following research alert. Analysts at CFRA have summarized their opinion as follows:We lift our 12-month target to $285 from $275 following WAB's Q1 earnings print, valuing shares at 24.2x our 2027 EPS outlook of $11.76 (revised from $11.46; 2026 EPS estimate up to $10.57 from $10.50), a slight premium to WAB's long-term historical multiple average given structural improvements in earnings quality. While we are cautious on signs of overcapacity in the freight market, an elevated order backlog (12-month sits at over $9 billion), internal initiatives to shore up margins, and potential synergies from M&A activity positions WAB to continue growing earnings at double-digit rates in 2026-2027, in our view. Despite tariff-related cost pressures, WAB has done a commendable job of defending margins via a mix of pricing, lean manufacturing, and pruning of lower-profit operations. Q1 results were mixed but overall positive, in our view. We maintain our Hold recommendation on shares.

$WAB