-- Intel's (INTC) post-earnings commentary suggests revenue upside potential for 2026 despite a likely conservative outlook for the second half of the year, UBS Securities said in a note e-mailed Friday.
Late Thursday, the chipmaker posted stronger-than-expected first-quarter results amid artificial intelligence-driven demand for its products. The company issued an upbeat outlook for the ongoing quarter.
"We're prudently planning for (personal computer) demand to weaken in the second half of the year and expect the full-year PC unit (total addressable market) to be down low-double-digit percent in line with industry peers and experts," Intel Chief Financial Officer David Zinsner said on an earnings conference call late Thursday, according to a FactSet transcript.
The CFO's outlook implies full-year revenue of about $58 billion, or roughly $4 billion higher than the pre-call Wall Street estimate, and up 10% year over year, UBS analysts, including Timothy Arcuri, said in a note to clients.
"The rapid inflection in server (central processing unit) demand has put (Intel) in a position to better control its destiny this year, so the odds are that even the implied commentary for (the second half) is still probably conservative and numbers still have upside," the analysts wrote.
UBS raised its price target on the Intel stock to $83 from $65 while maintaining its neutral rating.
The company's shares were up 21% in Friday afternoon trade. So far this year, the stock has surged 118%.
"The newsflow on foundry should also remain positive as the release of the 14A production design kit late this year probably catalyzes one or more foundry deals with [Nvidia (NVDA), Apple (AAPL), maybe Amazon (AMZN)] and a high-end consumer product," the UBS analysts said. "The manufacturing narrative is playing out about as we expected, but we have under-estimated how much the market was willing to overlook a lack of earnings power."
Customer order patterns in the near term continue to be "very robust" across Intel's businesses, Zinsner said on the call. Over the past 90 days, the company's outlook for server CPU demand has improved, with expectations for a strong year of double-digit unit growth for Intel and the broader industry, Zinsner said, adding that the momentum is seen extending into next year.
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