-- Oil edged higher early on Thursday with the United States and Iran making little progress to end a war that has produced the largest-ever supply shock with shipments from the Persian Gulf region barred from the Strait of Hormuz.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil for June delivery was last seen up US$0.33 to US$93.29 per barrel, while June Brent oil was up US$0.50 to US$102.41.
The United States and Iran remain at an impasse, with Iran refusing to negotiate as long as the U.S. Navy continues to blockade its ports, while the U.S. refuses to lift the blockade. Iran is attacking ships in the Strait of Hormuz, the chokepoint for 20% of the world's daily oil demand supplied by Persian Gulf nations, while reports say U.S. forces are boarding Iranian ships in the Indian Ocean.
"The Iranian leadership had made the lifting of the US blockade a precondition for the resumption of negotiations, with a senior official calling it an act of military aggression. President Trump for his part has indicated that the ceasefire will remain in place for now, leaving the conflict in a no airstrike, minimal movement of ships, unsustainable equilibrium," Helima Croft, Head of Global Commodity Strategy and MENA Research wrote.
WTI oil is up 37% since the Feb. 28 start to the war, but has retreated below the four-year high of US$112.95 touched on April 7 on hopes for a coming end to the conflict. However should traders expect the current impasse between the two sides to stretch out, prices could retests that four-year high.
"Trump has been touting that a deal with Iran is imminent through most of April. But a deal now looks increasingly elusive. Poly market bets in the US for when the SoH (Strait of Hormuz) will reopen have declined sharply over the past week. Bets on a reopening by 13 May has declined 27% since last Friday to now only 39%. Expectations for when the SoH will reopen is sliding rapidly into the future. That implies a higher oil price," said Bjarne Schieldrop, chief analyst commodities at SEB Research wrote.