FINWIRES · TerminalLIVE
FINWIRES

Oil Edges Lower Amid a Shaky Ceasefire Between the U.S. and Iran as Israel Continues to Attack Lebanon

-- Oil prices edged lower early on Friday amid doubts over the state of the ceasefire between Iran and the United States as Israel continues its attacks on Lebanon and the Strait of Hormuz remains closed.

West Texas Intermediate crude oil for May delivery was last seen down US$0.29 to US$97.58 per barrel, while June Brent oil was down US$0.27 to US$95.65.

A fragile two-week ceasefire for the United States' war on Iran reached this week looked more uncertain on Friday as Iran is said to be refusing to attend peace talks scheduled to be held this weekend in Pakistan as long as Israel continues its attacks on Lebanon. Reports on Thursday said Israeli Prime Minister plans to open talks with Lebanon but its attacks on Hezbollah militants in the country continue.

"Western outlets have reported that the Iranian delegation has already arrived in-country while some Iranian outlets dispute this claim, continuing to suggest that the talks are conditional on a ceasefire with Lebanon where Israel / Hezbollah continue to trade strikes," Tudor, Pickering, Holt analyst Matt Portillo wrote.

Iran continues to block the passage of tankers stranded in the Persian Gulf through the Strait of Hormuz, the choke point for exports from the region that supplies 20% of daily oil demand. The closure of the Strait has pushed oil futures up 41% since the start of the conflict, but spot prices have risen even more, reaching a record high this week as buyers hunt for supply.

"The physical market remains relatively supported as traders resist significant revisions in differentials in the near term, largely opting for a "show me" mentality despite speculation over the future of Strait of Hormuz transits swirling in oil markets. While Dated (spot) Brent trimmed from Tuesday's all-time record of $144.42/bbl (assessed at $124.68/bbl on April 8) and Middle Eastern cash differentials waned, Atlantic Basin crudes have continued to see strength as limited prompt availability of cargoes remains," Christopher Louney, a commodities strategist at RBC Capital Markets, wrote.

Related Articles

Research

Research Alert: CFRA Keeps Sell Rating On Shares Of Dow Inc.

CFRA, an independent research provider, has providedwith the following research alert. Analysts at CFRA have summarized their opinion as follows:We raise our 12-month target price by $7 to $25 using an average of a forward P/E of 13.2x our 2027 EPS view of $1.67 ($22) and our DCF model ($28). Our forward P/E is below the historic average of approximately 16x on lower expected margins and demand in 2027 compared to historical levels. We raise our 2026 EPS estimate to $2.72 from -$0.28 and 2027's to $1.67 from $0.53. Our sales projections are $44.6 billion for 2026 and $45.3 billion for 2027. We believe Dow's stock presents unfavorable risk-reward after rising 59% thus far in 2026. While the Middle East conflict has temporarily boosted Dow's performance through supply shortages and logistics disruptions enabling higher prices, better margins, and stronger competitive positioning in North America, we expect these tailwinds to fade. More importantly, sustained energy price volatility would likely hurt margins in two ways: (1) rising feedstock costs would squeeze profitability and (2) weakened industrial and consumer demand would pressure volumes.

$DOW
Research

Research Alert: CFRA Retains Buy Rating On Shares Of Eli Lilly And Company

CFRA, an independent research provider, has providedwith the following research alert. Analysts at CFRA have summarized their opinion as follows:Shares of LLY are down 3.60% today after reports of weaker-than-expected sales of the GLP-1 oral pill Foundayo in its first two weeks of launch in April. We think the news does not change our thesis, as we expected Foundayo to make a meaningful contribution to LLY's results starting in 2027. While we acknowledge that this initial data fell short of expectations, we think it is too early to draw a conclusion and Foundayo sales may catch up in the coming months. On Tuesday, Amazon launched a comprehensive weight management program that integrates primary care, pharmacy services, and virtual care for GLP-1 treatment, which should increase Foundayo's accessibility, in our view. This allows oral GLP-1s (Foundayo and Wegovy pill) at $25/month with insurance and $149/month cash-pay. Based on CDC data, around 40% of the U.S. adult population is obese. Thus, there is still a vast addressable market and Foundayo, with its ease to use (once-daily) and tolerability, is a strong product, in our view.

$LLY
Commodities

US Oil Update: Crude Mixed on Renewed Optimism for US-Iran Peace Talks

Crude futures diverged in after-hours trading on Friday as the US and Iran are expected to hold indirect talks in Pakistan, paving the way for the resumption of energy flows via the Strait of Hormuz.Front-month West Texas Intermediate crude futures fell 1.01% to $94.88 per barrel, while Brent futures were up 0.81% to $105.92/bbl."Spot crude and product prices eased off the early-April highs on a combination of system rerouting and deal optimism," Ole R. Hvalbye, commodities analyst, said, adding that April Gulf output is reduced by 14.5 million b/d of pre-war supply.US special envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner will reportedly travel to Pakistan on Saturday morning for direct talks with the Iranian delegation, as Tehran sounded a pessimistic tone on the prospects for talks to end the Middle East conflict.Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi arrived in Pakistan on Friday, but Tehran has not publicly agreed to meet with Trump's representatives. Araghchi plans to present a new written response to a US proposal for a peace deal while in Pakistan, according to media reports."Embarking on timely tour of Islamabad, Muscat, and Moscow. Purpose of my visits is to closely coordinate with our partners on bilateral matters and consult on regional developments," Araghchi said in a social media post on X.Meanwhile, the US sanctioned a Chinese oil refinery as well as dozens of shipping firms and vessels that transport Iranian oil on Friday, as the Trump administration ramps up economic pressure on Tehran amid the blockade of the Hormuz.The US Treasury Department's Office of Foreign Assets Control said it imposed penalties on Hengli Petrochemical Refinery, one of China's smaller so-called teapot oil refineries that the department called "one of Tehran's most valued customers."OFAC also announced sanctions against about 40 shipping companies and tankers involved in the shadow-fleet transport of Iran's oil.The latest diplomatic developments and sanctions came as the US increased pressure on Iran with its naval blockade to choke off Iranian oil revenues as Washington seeks to get Tehran to agree to talks to end the conflict.Saxo Bank strategists said the disruption in the Hormuz threatens to further delay crude and fuel flows from the Arabian Gulf.MarineTraffic said Hormuz traffic remains constrained, with eight crossings recorded on Apr.23, flat day-over-day and far below typical volumes.While no new attacks have occurred since April 22, risks remain elevated for the 702 vessels still in the Persian Gulf, amid threats of Iranian action, US interdiction and persistent mine hazards, the ship-tracking data firm said.