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FINWIRES

USD/CAD Range-Bound As Pair Holds Recent Ranges, RBC Says

-- RBC Capital Markets said USD/CAD is likely to remain range-bound in the short term, as this week's data and geopolitical developments were not enough to shake the pair out of recent ranges.

The pair is nearly flat on the week, as this week's data (CA CPI, BoC Business Outlook Survey, US retail sales) and the stream of Iran-related headlines were not enough to shake the pair out of recent ranges, RBC said.

RBC CAD Weekly Soundbites, noted a sharp leg lower below the 1.3500 area requires either 1) the US-CA rates spread to narrow more quickly than priced, cheapening the USD hedging costs, or 2) markets to attach a higher risk premium on US assets.

RBC added that USD/CAD has been re-establishing its negative correlation to US equities after being 'risk-neutral' for much of the past year. This means USD/CAD is again acting like a natural hedge under risk-off - whether or not this continues will matter from a hedging incentive perspective.

From a technical standpoint, RBC's George Davis said key trendline support at 1.3647 has held this week as the daily studies moved to oversold levels.

A daily close below 1.3647 would end the corrective phase that has been in place since late January and favour a re-test of this year's lows at 1.3526 and 1.3482, RBC said.

RBC added that resistance at 1.3799 and 1.3856 is expected to attract selling interest.

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