-- Canada reports gross domestic product for February and the preliminary estimate for March on Thursday, said Scotiabank.
February was initially guided by Statistics Canada to have been tracking a 0.2% month-over-month gain last month. Updated estimates are still in the same ballpark, but investors also get important details on sector drivers, noted the bank.
More meaningful may be the flash guidance, with no details, for March GDP, for which there is very little information so far, but a small gain is "feasible," stated Scotiabank.
The outcome will further inform Q1 GDP growth tracking on a production/income basis using monthly GDP. It's feasible that growth is tracking close to the Bank of Canada's 1.8% January Monetary Policy Report estimate, but that's on an expenditure basis. The massive over 4% inventory drag on Q4 GDP could reverse as an added upside, pointed out the bank.
One key is that consumer spending on goods is tracking a strong rebound in Q1 based on retail sales volumes. It's untrue that the economy isn't exhibiting rate sensitivity, a view that is disproportionately driven by a false understanding of what's keeping condo markets weak in Toronto and Vancouver, added Scotiabank.