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US Senators Urge Probe Into Oil Trading Ahead of Trump Iran Updates

-- Two US senators on Friday urged the Commodity Futures Trading Commission to investigate what they described as suspicious trading in crude futures ahead of President Trump's updates on the Middle East conflict on two different occasions in March and April.

The lawmakers, in a letter addressed to CFTC Chairman Michael S. Selig, said large, well-timed bets were placed shortly before two major policy statements on Mar. 23 and Apr. 7, 2026, potentially indicating misuse of non-public government information.

"This pattern raises serious questions about whether there has been recurring misappropriation of

material nonpublic government information and about the extent to which individuals inside or

outside the government have acted on such information," the lawmakers said in a letter.

The letter said that traders placed about $950 million bet on falling oil prices on Apr. 7, hours before Trump announced a two-week ceasefire with Iran. The announcement sent oil prices plunging by about 15%.

The lawmakers said oil futures volume surged on Mar. 23 just before Trump announced talks to de-escalate the war, a move that lowered crude prices and boosted stock indexes.

Reports indicate unidentified traders on the New York Mercantile Exchange made a $500 million "oil bet" minutes before the announcement, the letter said.

"There was no public news preceding the announcement to explain the price movement," the Senators said.

The lawmakers also pointed to what they described as a broader pattern of market activity anticipating major administration decisions.

The letter cited a Reuters review identifying other instances involving equity options and prediction markets where traders appeared to profit ahead of policy announcements.

It also referred to reported gains tied to an April 2025 tariff pause announcement, as well as bets on political developments in Venezuela and on potential US military action against Iran earlier this year.

The Senators asked whether the CFTC's Division of Enforcement had opened investigations into the March and April oil trades, and, if not, why not. The lawmakers also requested details on the agency's surveillance mechanisms and coordination with exchanges to detect unusual trading patterns.

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EMEA Natural Gas Update: Prices Flat as Traders Weigh Iran Peace Talks and Mixed Weather Outlook

European natural gas futures were little changed in after-hours trade on Friday after a choppy session driven by geopolitical developments and shifting expectations around renewed Iran-related peace talks scheduled for this weekend in Islamabad.Front-month Dutch TTF gas contracts edged up 0.009% to 44.40 euros ($52.02) per megawatt hour, while the UK NBP benchmark rose 0.46% to 111.40 pence ($1.51) per therm.Markets moved back and forth through the day as reports circulated that US President Donald Trump is sending special envoy Steve Witkoff and son-in-law Jared Kushner to Pakistan for discussions with Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi. The talks are expected to take place this weekend.US Vice President JD Vance will not attend, as the perceived counterparty, Iranian parliamentary speaker Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf, is also reported not to be participating.Trump declined on Thursday to offer a timeline for resolving the conflict with Iran, telling reporters, "Don't rush me." The two sides remain divided on key issues presumably to be central to the Islamabad discussions.The US Navy began a blockade of Iranian ports on Apr. 13 after the collapse of the first round of talks in Islamabad. Trump reiterated on Thursday that the US has "total control over the Strait of Hormuz." However, a Financial Times report, citing Vortexa data, indicated continued vessel movements in and out of the Gulf during the blockade, including ships linked to Iranian crude exports totaling roughly 10.7 million barrels.In Europe, weather models continue to show mixed signals for late April and early May. Forecaster Atmospheric G2 said in a social media post Friday that a general warming trend is expected, but noted the possibility of colder air reaching Western Europe between Apr. 28 and May 11. Some models also indicate a potential shift toward warmer conditions from the west, which could affect central and western regions. Overall confidence in the forecast remains low.Gas market fundamentals are also being shaped by ongoing storage replenishment ahead of the next winter season. Data from Gas Infrastructure Europe shows EU gas storage levels at 30.82% capacity, below the year-ago level of 37.54%.

US Markets

Intel's Post-Earnings Remarks Indicate Full-Year Revenue Upside Potential, UBS Says

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Sectors

Sector Update: Tech

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