Treasury
BMO on The Day Ahead in Canada
Canada will release retail sales for February and preliminary March data at 8:30 a.m. ET on Friday, said Bank of Montreal (BMO).The bank noted that it expects retail sales to have risen 0.9% month over month in February, in line with Statistics Canada's flash estimate and following a solid 1.1% month-over-month increase in the previous month.This would be the first two-month string of gains since spring 2025, highlighting a see-saw pattern that has been in place since United States tariff uncertainty ramped up following 'Liberation Day,' pointed out BMO. Higher gasoline prices will help support the headline increase, while auto sales were muted and likely leave growth in spending excluding autos at the same pace as the headline.Flat goods prices suggest spending volumes could also rise for the second straight month, stated the bank. In the meantime, the March flash estimate will provide an early look at how sales fared in the outbreak of the Iran war, with higher gasoline prices expected to divert some spending away from non-essential goods.The advance report on March wholesale trade will also be released at 8:30 a.m. ET on Friday, added the bank.Canada's budget balance for February would normally be scheduled for Friday, but with the Spring Economic Update due on Tuesday, it could be released then, stated BMO.The US dollar (USD) is a bit softer (BBDXY -0.05%) with the Canadian dollar (CAD or loonie) firmer (CAD per USD -0.13%) early Friday, according to the bank.
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