Commodities
Asia Biofuels Update: Malaysian Palm Oil Diverges from Crude Oil on Weaker Exports, Stronger Ringgit
Malaysian palm oil futures slipped on Monday, pulling away from crude oil prices, as weaker exports and a stronger local currency weighed on sentiment.Reversing the previous session's gains, the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives' May crude palm oil contract fell 0.66% to 4,487 Malaysian ringgit ($1,134.94) per metric ton. The June contract dropped by 0.96% to 4,521 ringgit/mt in midday trade.Malaysian shipments for the April 1-25 period reportedly declined 15.7% from a month earlier, according to cargo surveyors cited by Trading Economics.A stronger Malaysian ringgit, which rose against the US dollar by 0.28% on Monday, could further pressure exports as it makes them costlier.The recent drop in Malaysian shipments followed a 29.1% year-over-year rise in Q1 exports, as buyers advanced purchases due to the expected surge in shipping costs and as volumes of rival Indonesian cargoes softened due to higher export levies.Indonesia's move to raise its palm-based biodiesel blending to 50% from 40% beginning July 1 could further lift Malaysian exports going forward.The Malaysia Palm Oil Council said Indonesia's B50 program could absorb an additional 3 million metric tons per year of palm oil. Annual domestic consumption in Thailand could also increase by 350,000 metric tons as the country moves to B7 from B5, while demand in Malaysia could rise by 300,000 mt as the government raises its biodiesel blend to B15 from B10.Rising biofuel demand, elevated crude oil prices, and supply risks from the potential development of an El Nino weather trend will support palm oil prices, with the MPOC projecting them at around 4,500 ringgit/mt in the near term."However, further gains are likely to be capped by softer export demand amid inflation and weaker economic growth in key importing countries, alongside rising stocks as palm oil production gradually enters its seasonal peak," the MPOC said.According to Jim Teh, senior palm oil trader at Interband Group of Co., as cited by Bernama, palm oil prices could trade between 4,200 ringgit/mt and 4,300 ringgit/mt this week due to profit taking.