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Update: WTI Oil Closes Lower Amid a Shaky Ceasefire Between the U.S. and Iran

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil closed lower on Friday amid doubts over the state of the ceasefire between Iran and the United States as Israel continues its attacks on Lebanon and the Strait of Hormuz remains closed.WTI crude oil for May delivery closed down US$1.30 to settle at US$96.57 per barrel, while June Brent oil was last seen down US$0.60 to US$95.32.A fragile two-week ceasefire for the United States' war on Iran reached this week looked more uncertain on Friday as Iran is said to be refusing to attend peace talks scheduled to be held this weekend in Pakistan as long as Israel continues its attacks on Lebanon. Reports on Thursday said Israeli Prime Minister plans to open talks with Lebanon but its attacks on Hezbollah militants in the country continue."Western outlets have reported that the Iranian delegation has already arrived in-country while some Iranian outlets dispute this claim, continuing to suggest that the talks are conditional on a ceasefire with Lebanon where Israel / Hezbollah continue to trade strikes," Tudor, Pickering, Holt analyst Matt Portillo wrote.Iran continues to block the passage of tankers stranded in the Persian Gulf through the Strait of Hormuz, the choke point for exports from the region that supplies 20% of daily oil demand. The closure of the Strait has pushed oil futures up 41% since the start of the conflict, but spot prices have risen even more, reaching a record high this week as buyers hunt for supply."The physical market remains relatively supported as traders resist significant revisions in differentials in the near term, largely opting for a "show me" mentality despite speculation over the future of Strait of Hormuz transits swirling in oil markets. While Dated (spot) Brent trimmed from Tuesday's all-time record of $144.42/bbl (assessed at $124.68/bbl on April 8) and Middle Eastern cash differentials waned, Atlantic Basin crudes have continued to see strength as limited prompt availability of cargoes remains," Christopher Louney, a commodities strategist at RBC Capital Markets, wrote.

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Research14d ago

CIBC Maintains ATCO's Outperformer Rating and C$72 Price Target

CIBC Capital Markets on Thursday maintained its Outperformer rating and C$72 price target on the shares of ATCO (ACO-X.TO) after hosting a fireside chat with Adam Beattie, President of ATCO's Structures and Katie Patrick, Chief Financial Officer and Chief Investment Officer of ATCO Ltd., to discuss ACO's Structures & Logistics (S&L) business. The bank said it had also done a "deeper dive" on S&L, and ATCO remains "a top pick".CIBC said that, overall, the company update reinforced its "constructive view" on S&L given multiple policy/industry tailwinds that should help drive durable and more diversified growth."That said," it added, "ACO.X's commentary alone may not be sufficient to sway the marginal buyer of the stock -- limitations on disclosures could temper near-term re-rating potential despite a favourable demand backdrop and solid execution to date."CIBC said multiple tailwinds support a "positive outlook", noting that S&L benefits from multiple demand drivers, including Canada's support for large infrastructure projects (energy export buildout), rising defence spending, mineral extraction activity, and growing commercial and residential housing needs. "Modular housing could become more meaningful -- we believe ACO.X should be competitive in the Canadian military housing tender (strong history of serving defence) in the next year," the bank added.CIBC further noted that, in the U.S., there's "material runway to scale and grow" into new regions/markets as reshoring and the data centre buildout drive demand. It noted there are also strong data centre tailwinds in Australia."Data centres were flagged as increasingly attractive given improving economics and longer rental durations (typically 36-48+ months vs. 6-36 months for traditional rentals)," said CIBC. Currently holding only about 2% U.S. market share (representing 15% of S&L revenue), ATCO is well positioned to expand in this end market, the bank added.CIBC noted that ATCO emphasized that industrial (infrastructure, construction, resources) should continue to provide a "resilient, high-margin earnings base", while commercial and residential modular growth "should accelerate (off a smaller base)". CIBC said while margins in the latter will be lower near term, it said it does not expect material EBITDA margin contraction for S&L, with top line growth supporting earnings growth. "Further, we do not expect a step up in capex to support this growth (should remain in line with recent levels), and the strong growth can largely be leveraged off existing manufacturing capacity," added CIBC. "Trailing 3-year CAGRs (2022-2025) for revenue/EBITDA are 11%/26%."CIBC forecasts 3-year CAGRs for 2025-2028E for revenue/EBITDA of 8%/9%. It added that its revenue forecast could be conservative.CIBC noted ATCO reiterated its view that S&L is undervalued at current prices which is a view the bank shares. CIBC believes "enhanced disclosures (e.g. a backlog or explicit revenue/margin targets) could help", but noted ACTO seems reluctant to provide.(covers equity, commodity and economic research from major banks and research firms in North America, Asia and Europe. Research providers may contact us here: https://www..com/contact-us)Price: $72.28, Change: $+2.18, Percent Change: +3.11%

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US Markets14d ago

Equity Markets Mixed Intraday Ahead of US-Iran Talks

US benchmark equity indexes were mixed intraday as traders awaited upcoming talks between Washington and Iran and parsed the latest inflation data.The Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 0.6% at 47,922.5 after midday Friday, while the S&P 500 fell 0.1% to 6,815.3. The Nasdaq Composite rose 0.2% to 22,870.8. Among sectors, consumer staples saw the biggest decline, while technology paced the gainers.West Texas Intermediate crude oil was up 0.5% at $98.32 a barrel intraday.Officials from the US and Iran are expected to meet Saturday in Pakistan, which helped broker a recent two-week truce between the two countries.The US is ready to renew and increase strikes on Iran if the parties are unable to reach a peace deal in the upcoming talks, CNN reported Friday, citing President Donald Trump. Negotiations can't start until the US agrees to a ceasefire in Lebanon and the release of blocked Iranian assets, the news outlet reported, citing Iran's parliament speaker.US Treasury yields were higher intraday, with the 10-year rate up four basis points at 4.32% and the two-year rate rising 3.9 basis points to 3.81%.In economic news, US consumer inflation accelerated to its highest monthly reading in nearly four years in March as the Middle East conflict sent energy prices sharply higher, official data showed."The fallout of the US/Israel-Iran war was evident in the March consumer price index," Oxford Economics said in a note.US consumer sentiment hit the lowest on record this month, reflecting heightened worries about higher prices and the overall economic fallout from the Middle East conflict, a survey by the University of Michigan showed."Demographic groups across age, income, and political party all posted setbacks in sentiment, as did every component of the index, reflecting the widespread nature of this month's fall," Surveys of Consumers Director Joanne Hsu said. "Economic expectations will likely improve after consumers gain confidence that the supply disruptions stemming from the Iran conflict have ended and gas prices have moderated."In company news, ServiceNow (NOW) shares were down 8.6% intraday, among the worst performers on the S&P 500.The enterprise software company's competitive advantage may have eroded amid growing evidence that workflow automation tasks can be automated by harnessing artificial intelligence models, UBS Securities said in a note. The brokerage downgraded its rating on the stock to neutral from buy and lowered its price target to $100 from $170.CoreWeave (CRWV) shares jumped 11% after the AI cloud computing company struck a deal to support the development and deployment of Anthropic's Claude AI models.Other major tech names were also advancing intraday, with Nvidia (NVDA) up 2.4%, the biggest gainer on the Dow, while Super Micro Computer (SMCI) jumped 9.2%, the best performer on the S&P 500. Broadcom (AVGO), Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), and Amazon.com (AMZN) were also firmly in the green.Gold was down 0.6% at $4,790 per troy ounce, while silver rose 0.1% to $76.48 per ounce.

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Update: WTI Oil Closes Lower Amid a Shaky Ceasefire Between the U.S. and Iran

May WTI Crude Oil Contract Closes Down US$1.30; Settles at US$96.57 per Barrel

Update: WTI Oil Closes Lower Amid a Shaky Ceasefire Between the U.S. and Iran

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