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Wealth Brokers, Investment Banks Faced Uneven First-Quarter Activity, UBS Says

Wealth brokers and investment banks faced uneven market activity in the first quarter due to geopolitical uncertainty, UBS Securities said in client note sent Wednesday.For the first quarter, UBS is projecting earnings per share to be down 7% quarter on quarter and up 22% annually for wealth brokers. For investment banks, the broker is looking at a 29% slump in EPS on a quarterly basis and an 11% jump year over year."For wealth brokers, growth was tempered by lower March market levels, though retail trading picked up on volatility," UBS analysts, including Michael Brown, wrote. "Organic growth was solid versus expectations, with the setup improving into (2026)."Meanwhile, momentum faded for investment banks during the quarter as pipelines shrank from the year end, "with some deals likely paused pending macro clarity, creating an activity air pocket," Brown said.Late Tuesday, the US and Iran agreed to a two-week ceasefire. The war, which began at the end of February, spread across the Middle East and curtailed shipments through the crucial Strait of Hormuz.UBS named Charles Schwab (SCHW) and Stifel Financial (SF) as its top picks heading into the first-quarter earnings season, saying Evercore (EVR) is "favorably positioned." Moelis (MC), Lazard (LAZ), and Raymond James Financial (RJF) are expected to "lag on a relative basis," according to the brokerage.UBS upgraded LPL Financial (LPLA) to buy, citing an attractive valuation.UBS lowered its price targets for wealth brokers and investment banks by 8% and 2% on average, respectively.The brokerage expects artificial intelligence to be a key topic at the upcoming earnings season for wealth brokers."In the wealth space, we expect AI to improve advisor productivity, though see risks to sweep cash economics and to market share of advised assets," Brown said. "Ultimately, we see these threats as slower moving than the bears think and see forward-looking firms as well positioned to adapt and thrive."

$EVR$LAZ$LPLA$MC$RJF$SCHW$SF

US Markets20d ago

Fed Should be 'Nimble' Amid War-Driven Macro Risks, March Meeting Minutes Show

The Federal Reserve should be "nimble" in adjusting monetary policy in light of heightened risks to inflation and employment driven by the Middle East conflict, minutes from the central bank's March 17-18 meeting showed Wednesday.At the meeting, the Federal Open Market Committee decided to keep its policy rate unchanged between 3.50% and 3.75% for a second straight time amid uncertainty around the US-Israel war with Iran. The FOMC's Summary of Economic Projections at the time continued to indicate potential policy easing this year."In light of the heightened degree of economic uncertainty, participants emphasized the importance of being nimble in adjusting the stance of policy in response to incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks," the meeting minutes showed Wednesday. "Many participants judged that, in time, it would likely become appropriate to lower the target range for the federal funds rate if inflation were to decline in line with their expectations."A couple of policymakers pushed their expected timing of potential policy easing "further into the future," according to the document."The vast majority of participants judged that upside risks to inflation and downside risks to employment were elevated, and the majority of participants noted that these risks had increased with developments in the Middle East," the minutes showed.On Tuesday, the US and Iran agreed to a two-week ceasefire. The war, which began at the end of February, spread across the Middle East and curtailed shipments through the crucial Strait of Hormuz, driving up energy prices.West Texas Intermediate crude oil sank nearly 15% to $96.34 a barrel intraday, while Brent futures tumbled 12% to $96.55. Despite the declines, oil prices remained well above pre-war levels."Our baseline view is that as the (energy price) shock gradually fades, so too will inflation pressures," TD Economics Senior Economist Andrew Hencic said in a note Wednesday. "This may open the door for the Fed to normalize rates in the latter half of the year."Most policymakers were concerned that a prolonged war could soften labor market conditions, possibly warranting additional policy easing, the meeting minutes showed Wednesday.Earlier this month, official data showed that the economy added more jobs than expected in March, while the unemployment rate edged down to 4.3% from 4.4% sequentially."Many participants pointed to the risk of inflation remaining elevated for longer than expected amid a persistent increase in oil prices, which could call for rate increases to help bring inflation down to the committee's 2% objective and keep longer-term inflation expectations firmly anchored," according to the latest meeting minutes. "Participants anticipated that, under appropriate monetary policy, inflation would gradually move down toward the committee's 2% objective after the effect of increased tariffs and higher oil prices had faded."Markets widely expect the FOMC to keep interest rates unchanged later this month, according to the CME FedWatch tool.

US Markets20d ago

Equity Markets Jump Intraday, Oil Sinks Following US-Iran Ceasefire

US benchmark equity indexes rallied intraday, while oil prices slumped after Washington and Iran agreed to a two-week ceasefire.The Nasdaq Composite jumped 2.9% to 22,651.5 after midday Wednesday, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average increased 2.6% to 47,803.5. The S&P 500 advanced 2.4% to 6,778.6. Barring energy's 4.6% decline, all sectors were in the green, led by a 3.9% rise in communication services.West Texas Intermediate crude oil sank 15% to $95.85 a barrel intraday, while Brent futures tumbled 13% to $95.40.US President Donald Trump, who had set an 8 pm ET, Tuesday, deadline for Tehran to fully reopen the Strait of Hormuz, agreed to suspend planned attacks on Iran for two weeks upon Pakistan's request. Tehran said it would allow "safe passage" through the key trading route, subject to coordination with Iranian authorities.However, reports about ceasefire violations signified the possible fragile nature of the pact."While markets are hailing the agreement as cause for celebration, it remains to be seen if the ceasefire will hold, and if flows resume through the Strait of Hormuz," Stifel said in a note.Iran halted oil tanker traffic through the waterway after Israel attacked Lebanon, CNN reported Wednesday, citing semi-official news agency Fars. Separately, Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates reportedly said they were targeted with Iranian drones and missiles.Airline and cruise operator stocks jumped intraday, with Carnival (CCL) up 11%, the top gainer on the S&P 500. United Airlines (UAL) surged 9.9%, among the best performers on the index. Southwest Airlines (LUV) and American Airlines (AAL) were also up sharply, along with Norwegian Cruise Line (NCLH) and Royal Caribbean Cruises (RCL).US Treasury yields were lower intraday, with the 10-year rate down 6.4 basis points at 4.28% and the two-year rate dropping six basis points to 3.77%.In company news, Meta Platforms (META) shares soared 7.9%, among the best performers on the S&P 500, after the tech giant unveiled its Muse Spark artificial intelligence model.Delta Air Lines (DAL) logged better-than-expected first-quarter results amid robust corporate and leisure demand. The air carrier's shares were up 5.8% intraday.Exxon Mobil (XOM) expects its global oil-equivalent output to take a hit in the first quarter due to production disruptions caused by the Middle East conflict. Shares of the US oil giant were down 5.9%, while smaller rival Chevron (CVX) fell 5.5%, the steepest decline on the Dow.Gold was up 1.7% at $4,764.70 per troy ounce, while silver gained 4.7% to $75.35 per ounce.

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Financial News · Live Terminal

Wealth Brokers, Investment Banks Faced Uneven First-Quarter Activity, UBS Says

Wealth Brokers, Investment Banks Faced Uneven First-Quarter Activity, UBS Says

Fed Should be 'Nimble' Amid War-Driven Macro Risks, March Meeting Minutes Show

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