Commodities
Europe Gas Flows Rewired as Russian Supply Collapse Reshapes Market, OIES Says
European gas flows have shifted sharply since 2022, reshaping pricing and supply patterns as Russian pipeline volumes dropped, according to analysis by the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies.OIES said multiple shocks, including the Ukraine war and reduced Russian exports, have transformed Europe's gas market and made outcomes more uncertain.Long-term gas contracts have declined significantly, reducing stable transport bookings and altering traditional supply dynamics across European networks, OIES added.At the same time, LNG imports have risen sharply across Europe, with new terminals and expansions changing how gas enters and moves across the continent.Gas flow patterns in Europe have shifted dramatically, moving away from the traditional east-to-west routes toward a more flexible system driven by changing supply sources, OIES said.The network now operates on a radial model, with gas entering from northwest Europe and LNG terminals across the Baltics and Mediterranean, then moving inward toward central regions.The shift in European gas hub pricing reflects a steep decline in Russian pipeline supplies from their 2019 peak, with disruptions intensifying after 2022, according to OIES.Earlier signs of tightening emerged during the COVID-19 pandemic and into 2021, when Gazprom scaled back spot market sales, further reducing available supply and reshaping pricing dynamics.Russian pipeline gas supply dropped steeply after 2022, with volumes partly offset by lower demand and rising LNG imports, OIES added.Gas consumption in Europe fell from 491 billion cubic meters in 2021 to about 391 billion cubic meters in 2023, while LNG imports rose from 86 billion cubic meters in 2021 to 146 Bcm in 2023.The decline in Russian flows occurred in two phases, first in 2022 with Nord Stream disruptions and later in 2025 when transit via Ukraine ended, OIES added.Before 2022, Russian gas entering Germany via Nord Stream and Belarus was widely redistributed across Europe, supplying markets including Poland, the Netherlands, Belgium and France.Some volumes also moved south through Germany into the Czech Republic, where gas was either consumed locally or transported onward into neighboring countries, forming a key transit corridor.Gas reaching Slovakia was combined with supplies from Ukraine, with large volumes then routed to Austria, where part was used domestically and the rest re-exported further across Europe, OIES added.Austria acted as a major distribution hub, sending gas onward to Italy, Hungary, Slovenia and Croatia, supporting a complex regional network of interconnected flows, according to OIES.Between 2021 and 2023, these flows collapsed sharply, with northwest European supplies via Nord Stream and Belarus falling by 88 Bcm to zero, while Ukraine transit volumes also declined and ceased entirely by 2025.