Commodities
Biofuels Update: Soybean Complex, Palm Oil Rise; Ethanol Up
Both the Chicago soybean complex and Malaysian palm oil futures strengthened on Tuesday, despite diverging export trends.The May soybean contract on the Chicago Board of Trade was up 0.49% to $11.71 per bushel, and the May soybean oil contract edged higher by 1.26% to 70.51 cents per pound in early trade.Soybean export inspections in the US grew to 748,678 metric tons in the week ended April 16, from 738,786 mt in the prior week, and versus 560,009 mt a year earlier, according to agriculture data released on Monday.China emerged as the top destination, with 446,146 mt shipped during the week, followed by Egypt with 117,568 mt and Japan with 76,804 mt.For the current marketing year, shipments stood at 32.2 million metric tons, still well below the previous year's 42.7 mmt.The pace of soybean planting in the US reached 12% as of April 19, faster than the previous season's 7% and the five-year average of 5%, data also showed.In China, domestic grain production may increase this year due to enhanced farming technology and improved land use efficiency, possibly resulting in a 6.1% year-over-year decline in soybean imports, according to an agricultural outlook report, cited by China Daily.Slowing import growth in China will mainly impact export markets in Brazil and the US, and will potentially reshape global supply chains, according to Milling Middle East & Africa Magazine.Brazilian soybean crop was 92% harvested as of April 16, based on AgRural estimates, cited by Barchart.In Asia, Malaysian palm oil futures inched up on Tuesday, as rival soybean oil rose, despite weakening exports.The Bursa Malaysia Derivatives' May crude palm oil contract climbed 0.81% to 4,491 Malaysian ringgit ($1,135.24) per metric ton. The June contract gained 1.07% to 4,535 ringgit/mt.Cargo surveyors reportedly estimated a 25.6% to 25.8% month-over-month drop in Malaysian shipments for the first 20 days of April, according to Phillip Capital and Trading Economics.An analysis by price reporting agency Fastmarkets showed that Malaysia's exports to most regional destinations fell in the first half of April, with the largest drop recorded for Middle Eastern shipments, due to a recent surge in product cost and freight rates.For the April 1-15 period, exports fell from a month earlier by 324,724 mt to 580,018 mt, primarily due to a 114,650 mt decline in shipments to the Middle East, based on Intertek Testing Services data, cited by the agency.Flow to India reportedly reduced to 102,300 mt from 150,600 mt, while cargoes to China decreased to 54,760 mt from 67,550 mt.India's purchases may rebound ahead of a seasonal demand, but China's imports may remain under pressure due to negative economics.In China, "domestic imports margins remained deeply inverted, leading to few vessel purchases and even two cancellations, but port inventories remained high," Chinese price reporting agency MySteel said.Palm oil market fundamentals have softened overall, with declining exports and rising output creating a "strong supply, weak demand" pattern, MySteel said.The expected rise in Malaysian output following a seasonal low in Q1 could limit the drawdown in domestic stocks, according to Fastmarkets.Nonetheless, palm oil may remain supported if crude oil prices continue to strengthen, boosting biofuel demand.Indonesia is set to increase its biodiesel program to 50% from the current 40% beginning July 1, while Malaysia is working to raise its mandate to 12% and 15% from the current 10%, although timeline has yet to be determined.In the US, the May-dated ethanol futures on the NYMEX ended four sessions of losses on Monday, rebounding by 0.13% to about $1.90 per gallon.The market is now awaiting release of weekly production, inventories, and export data, due Wednesday.